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Analysts: Syria's Diplomatic Recognition of Lebanon Shows Willingness to Compromise PDF Print E-mail



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Written by Editor   
Thursday, 21 August 2008

Syria's diplomatic recognition of Lebanon shows President Bashar Assad is willing to make concessions and help boost stability in the region, once he gets at least part of what he wants, analysts say -- a lesson that could raise hopes for peace with Israel.

The opening of diplomatic ties with Lebanon, long resisted by Damascus, formally puts to an end the question of whether Syria recognizes the independence of its neighbor, which it dominated for decades and which many accuse it of still trying to control.

The move doesn't end Syria's influence in Lebanon. Damascus only agreed after a political compromise between Lebanon's feuding factions created a unity government where Syrian ally Hizbullah has considerable weight, and after a figure seen as relatively friendly to Syria -- Michel Suleiman -- was installed as president.

Once that was secured, Syria was willing to drop the card it long held over Lebanon. Assad and Suleiman agreed last week to establish diplomatic relations and to negotiate the shared border between the two countries.

"It is a message that he (Assad) desires peace and that Syria is a factor of stability and not a threat ... It is a country that knows what it wants and goes for it," said Edmond Saab, An-Nahar daily's executive editor.

Assad may have intended to send a signal to Israel at a time when the two countries are in indirect peace negotiations, mediated by Turkey. Syria demands that Israel return the Golan Heights, seized in 1967, in return for any peace, while Israel insists Syria must end its support for Hizbullah.

Shlomo Brom, senior researcher at the Jaffee Center at Tel Aviv University in Israel, said Syria won't stop meddling in Lebanon, but the recognition does show Assad "is breaking away from the traditional Syrian position that Lebanon is part of Syria."

That in itself could help peace with Israel, said Brom, former chief of strategic planning in the Israeli army and former government adviser on strategic and military affairs.

"It indicates that Assad can be trusted more in negotiations because he is willing to make positive and far reaching changes," he said.

Even if only symbolic, Syria's recognition of Lebanon is a significant change. The two countries became independent from French rule in the 1940s, but many in Syria considered their smaller neighbor part of their country, torn away by colonial map-makers. Damascus refused formal diplomatic ties ever since and insisted the countries were "too close" to need formal relations.

Syria controlled Lebanon for nearly 30 years, starting when its troops deployed as peacekeepers in the 1970s during the country's 15 year civil war. After the war ended in 1990, the military presence continued -- and Syria all but directly steered Lebanon's politics, giving its approval to presidents, prime ministers and governments.

Its direct hold ended in 2005, when Damascus was forced to pull out its troops amid Lebanese and international outrage over the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Many in Lebanon accuse Syria in the killing, a claim Damascus denies.

Even after a government of anti-Syrian factions led by Prime Minister Fouad Saniora was created, the United States and Syria's opponents accuse it of seeking to control Lebanon. Hizbullah and Saniora's backers were caught in a power struggle that paralyzed the government, fueled sectarian tensions and nearly tore the country apart.

Lebanon's turmoil poisoned Syria's already troubled ties with the West, particularly the United States, which demands it end attempts to influence Lebanon, as well as its backing of Hizbullah and other militant groups Washington considers terrorists.

Cooperating on Lebanon has already helped break Assad's international isolation. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is expected to visit Damascus in September.

The move also suggests Assad feels strong enough at home to make concessions. When he came to power in 2000, he was considered a weaker figure dependent on hardliners from the regime of his powerful father, Hafez Assad. But he has since moved to entrench himself in power -- enough now not to fear a backlash from internal opponents of any concessions on Lebanon.

Still, Assad faces problems at home. Last month, his top military adviser, Brig. Gen. Mohammed Suleiman, was assassinated in the northern port city of Tartous. His killers are not known, but the slaying has raised talk of rivalries within the leadership.

Few expect Syria to end its influence in Lebanon. Sateh Noureddine, managing editor of the Lebanese As-Safir daily, said Syrian interference "may even grow stronger and more organized," and lingering bitterness from both sides can keep tensions alive.

"The Syrians have not gotten over the 30 years' experience they had here," he said, "and the Lebanese bear resentment about that period that will take a long time to deal with."(AP)

 

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