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18th Attempt to Elect a President is Likely to Fail Again

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Written by News Editor

Monday, 21 April 2008

The 18th attempt to elect a Lebanese president, due to take place next Tuesday, is likely to see a fate similar to that of its predecessors, with rival factions now setting their sights on the 2009 parliamentary elections. The 17 previous attempts have all failed, with MPs who are supposed to pick the new head of state, not even holding the meetings called to elect one. "The more time passes, the more the calculations become about the electoral results which will ultimately determine the power struggle," says Patrick Haenni of International Crisis Group. He was referring to the paralysis that has resulted from the political conflict between the anti-Syrian ruling coalition and the Hizbullah-led opposition. The deadlock has left Lebanon without a president for almost five months since pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud stepped down at the end of his mandate. The ruling March 14 alliance is demanding the immediate and unconditional election of consensus candidate and army chief Michel Suleiman. The Iranian- and Syrian-backed opposition links this election to a "package" of pre-conditions which include the formation of a national unity cabinet and a new electoral law. Lebanon, which suffered a 15-year civil war up to 1990, finds itself in dangerous territory where it lacks a head of state, has a government considered "illegitimate" by the opposition, a parliament which has not met for over 16 months and an army chief set to leave office at the end of August, risking a void in the military leadership as well. "The presidential crisis is getting nowhere and is likely to last even longer," read the daily An-Nahar on Friday. But despite the political paralysis, the various players are behaving as if it is already 2009. Their speeches focus more and more on reforming the electoral law of 2000, which was drawn up when the country was still under Syrian domination. Syria withdrew its troops in April 2005 after domestic and international anger at the killing in Beirut of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, for whose death many blamed Damascus. The troops had been there for nearly three decades. Experts say that the main issue with this law is that it does not ensure accurate representation of Lebanese political and religious forces, which are at the core of the current crisis. According to attorney Ziad Baroud, a specialist in electoral law, the 2000 law "does not guarantee to Christian political forces their true electoral weight." Christian candidates are thus dependent on Muslim votes in the south and Bekaa, where there is a Shiite majority, and in Beirut and the north, where there is a Sunni majority. Christian voters thus have little effective impact on election outcomes in those areas, a situation which Christian leaders, from both the opposition and the majority, criticize. The constitution distributes Lebanon's 128 parliamentary seats equally between Muslims and Christians, although Christians have come to be outnumbered by their Muslim counterparts. But if Christian voters are hoping for some autonomy with respect to Muslim votes, the electoral breakdown that would give it to them would not necessarily be beneficial for Muslim parties, such as the Shiite Amal movement or Sunni faction headed by Saad Hariri, according to Haenni. "This law is a major issue because the core of this crisis is the will to redefine who holds power in Lebanon," said Sami Salhab, a law professor at the Lebanese University. "The impasse goes beyond the election of a president. It centers on the distribution of power," Baroud said. The likelihood that the discord over the electoral law will persist raises fears that electoral law reform will see the same fate as the presidential election. "How long will the country remain without a president and paralyzed?," asked the daily An-Nahar. "Is it possible that all the deadlines have been delayed, including the one for parliamentary election?"(AFP-Naharnet)

 

 

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